Today / England - National League / Solihull Moors vs Boston Utd

Solihull Moors vs Boston Utd Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Solihull Moors

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Boston Utd

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.8%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.7%1-19.5%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.3%3-16.1%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Draw 21.9% 29.4% 3.40 -25.5%

Away win 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Over 2.5 65.5% 58.8% 1.70 +11.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 37.0% 2.70 +17.4%

BTTS 64.9% 64.5% 1.55 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.9%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Solihull Moors2.0

Boston Utd1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLIHULL MOORS · PPG 1.27

BOSTON UTD · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Win probability 1X2

Solihull Moors (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -25.5%

Boston Utd (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Solihull Moors face Boston Utd in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Solihull Moors a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Boston Utd 28%, so Solihull Moors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Solihull Moors and 1.4 for Boston Utd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Solihull Moors are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.32 for Boston Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Solihull Moors vs Boston Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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