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Recoleta vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 19:00

Recoleta

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cobreloa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+23.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.1%0-25.7%0-33.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.2%1-19.5%1-28.8%1-35.4%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 40.0% 2.50 -12.3%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 51.8% 1.93 +23.3%

Over 3.5 44.4% 29.9% 3.35 +48.7%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta1.6

Cobreloa1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.67

COBRELOA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -12.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

Cobreloa (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face Cobreloa in Chile - Primera B on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Cobreloa 41%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Recoleta and 1.9 for Cobreloa (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Cobreloa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Recoleta vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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