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Morecambe vs Boreham Wood Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Morecambe

PPG 0.82 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Boreham Wood

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.2%0-24.7%0-34.5%0-4+6.8%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.4%1-37.2%1-4+10.8%2 2-01.4%2-14.1%2-25.9%2-35.8%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.7%3-12.2%3-23.2%3-33.1%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.0% 20.8% 4.80 -8.8%

Draw 16.3% 23.1% 4.33 -29.4%

Away win 64.7% 65.4% 1.53 -1.0%

Over 2.5 82.8% 75.2% 1.33 +10.1%

Over 3.5 66.1% 55.6% 1.80 +19.0%

BTTS 75.5% 73.5% 1.36 +2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob75.5%

A 65% / xG 1.6-2.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–3 7.2%

#3 2–2 5.9%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 1–4 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Morecambe1.6

Boreham Wood2.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.8% · O3.5 PROB 66.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MORECAMBE · PPG 0.82

BOREHAM WOOD · PPG 1.55

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.55) vs Home POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Morecambe (H) 19.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -8.8%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -29.4%

Boreham Wood (A) 64.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Morecambe face Boreham Wood in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Morecambe a 19% chance, the draw 16% and Boreham Wood 65%, so Boreham Wood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Morecambe and 2.9 for Boreham Wood (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Morecambe are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.55 for Boreham Wood. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Morecambe vs Boreham Wood Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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