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Elfsborg vs Mjallby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 15 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 17:00

Elfsborg

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mjallby

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.0%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.7%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.9%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 36.4% 2.75 +32.8%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 24.5% 39.2% 2.55 -22.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Over 3.5 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elfsborg1.4

Mjallby0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ELFSBORG · PPG 2.50

MJALLBY · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Elfsborg (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +32.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Mjallby (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elfsborg face Mjallby in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elfsborg a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Mjallby 25%, so Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Elfsborg and 0.9 for Mjallby (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elfsborg are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Mjallby. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Elfsborg vs Mjallby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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