Today / England - National League / Hartlepool vs Forest Green

Hartlepool vs Forest Green Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Hartlepool

PPG 1.48 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Forest Green

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-112.7%0-28.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.2%2-16.7%2-24.3%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.6%

Draw 28.0% 29.0% 3.45 -3.4%

Away win 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

Over 2.5 40.7% 59.9% 1.67 -32.0%

Over 3.5 20.3% 37.7% 2.65 -46.2%

BTTS 46.5% 65.4% 1.53 -28.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob46.5%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartlepool1.0

Forest Green1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.48

FOREST GREEN · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.48), Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Hartlepool (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.4%

Forest Green (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartlepool face Forest Green in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartlepool a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Forest Green 42%, so Forest Green are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hartlepool and 1.3 for Forest Green (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartlepool are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.41 for Forest Green. This match finished 2-1.

Hartlepool vs Forest Green Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League Predictions