Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga / Rustavi vs Samgurali

Rustavi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 17:00

Rustavi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Samgurali

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.2%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.8%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Draw 25.1% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

Away win 22.0% 30.3% 3.30 -16.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 24.2% 29.9% 3.34 -11.5%

BTTS 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rustavi1.7

Samgurali0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSTAVI · PPG 2.00

SAMGURALI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

Rustavi (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.8%

Samgurali (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rustavi face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rustavi a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Samgurali 22%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rustavi and 0.8 for Samgurali (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rustavi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Rustavi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Predictions