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Spaeri vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 15:00

Spaeri

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.8%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.6%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 50.0% 2.00 -3.4%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Away win 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 22.5% 32.9% 3.04 -19.0%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.4

Dinamo Batumi1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 1.14

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -3.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Dinamo Batumi (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Dinamo Batumi 25%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Spaeri and 1.0 for Dinamo Batumi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Dinamo Batumi. This match finished 3-3.

Spaeri vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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