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Detroit City vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 23:30

Detroit City

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Miami FC

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-18.6%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.2%1-111.8%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.1%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 64.5% 1.55 -20.2%

Draw 27.1% 26.7% 3.75 +1.0%

Away win 21.4% 19.0% 5.25 +7.4%

Over 2.5 43.9% 56.5% 1.77 -22.3%

Over 3.5 14.6% 33.9% 2.95 -34.2%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Detroit City1.4

Miami FC0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DETROIT CITY · PPG 3.00

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Detroit City (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -20.2%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.0%

Miami FC (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Detroit City face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Detroit City a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Miami FC 21%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Detroit City and 0.6 for Miami FC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Detroit City are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Miami FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Detroit City vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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