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Aalesund vs Brann Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 18:00

Aalesund

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brann

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.0%0-25.8%0-35.5%0-4+7.9%1 1-02.0%1-15.7%1-28.1%1-37.7%1-4+11.0%2 2-01.4%2-14.0%2-25.7%2-35.4%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.9%3-22.7%3-32.5%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% 27.8% 3.60 -29.8%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 64.1% 54.1% 1.85 +18.6%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

Over 3.5 61.5% 47.6% 2.10 +29.1%

BTTS 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob63.0%

A 64% / xG 1.4-2.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–3 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund1.4

Brann2.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 61.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 0.50

BRANN · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 14.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -29.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Brann (A) 64.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face Brann in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Brann 64%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aalesund and 2.9 for Brann (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Brann. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Aalesund vs Brann Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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