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Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Bokelj

PPG 0.81 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-112.3%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 40.8% 2.45 -10.6%

Draw 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Away win 34.1% 38.2% 2.62 -10.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 42.0% 2.38 +10.0%

Over 3.5 16.9% 23.8% 4.20 -17.4%

BTTS 49.2% 52.1% 1.92 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bokelj1.1

Arsenal Tivat1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOKELJ · PPG 0.81

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.81), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bokelj (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -10.6%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Arsenal Tivat (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bokelj face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bokelj a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Arsenal Tivat 34%, so Bokelj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bokelj and 1.0 for Arsenal Tivat (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bokelj are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.00 for Arsenal Tivat. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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