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Decic vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 35 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 18:00

Decic

PPG 1.82 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.4%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.7%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Decic1.4

Arsenal Tivat0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DECIC · PPG 1.82

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=48.2%

Win probability 1X2

Decic (H) 48.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arsenal Tivat (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Decic face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Decic a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Arsenal Tivat 25%, so Decic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Decic and 0.9 for Arsenal Tivat (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Decic are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.94 for Arsenal Tivat. This match finished 1-2.

Decic vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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