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Mladost DG vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 35 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 18:00

Mladost DG

PPG 1.59 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sutjeska

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.5%0-28.0%0-34.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 22.7% 4.40 +32.9%

Draw 26.5% 33.3% 3.00 -12.3%

Away win 43.3% 57.1% 1.75 -24.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Over 3.5 28.1% 27.9% 3.58 +0.4%

BTTS 53.4% 52.4% 1.91 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.4%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.5%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost DG1.2

Sutjeska1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST DG · PPG 1.59

SUTJESKA · PPG 1.65

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away GOOD (1.65)

Win probability 1X2

Mladost DG (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +32.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.3%

Sutjeska (A) 43.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost DG face Sutjeska in Montenegro - First League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost DG a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Sutjeska 43%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mladost DG and 1.5 for Sutjeska (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost DG are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.65 for Sutjeska. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Mladost DG vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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