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Eastleigh vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Eastleigh

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tamworth

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.9%0-24.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.6%1-110.2%1-27.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.2%3-15.0%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.2%4+-22.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 44.4% 2.25 -5.3%

Draw 23.1% 30.8% 3.25 -24.9%

Away win 34.8% 34.7% 2.88 +0.2%

Over 2.5 63.3% 59.9% 1.67 +5.7%

Over 3.5 41.2% 38.5% 2.60 +7.1%

BTTS 64.6% 66.7% 1.50 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.6%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastleigh1.7

Tamworth1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTLEIGH · PPG 1.18

TAMWORTH · PPG 1.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away AVERAGE (1.05)

Win probability 1X2

Eastleigh (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -24.9%

Tamworth (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastleigh face Tamworth in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastleigh a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Tamworth 35%, so Eastleigh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eastleigh and 1.5 for Tamworth (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastleigh are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.05 for Tamworth. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Eastleigh vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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