Eastleigh vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

England - National League Regular Season - 45 Silverlake Stadium· Eastleigh Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Eastleigh PPG 1.18

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Tamworth PPG 1.05

Over3.5· +7.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastleigh face Tamworth in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastleigh a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Tamworth 35%, so Eastleigh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eastleigh and 1.5 for Tamworth (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastleigh are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.05 for Tamworth. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.1%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -5.3%

Draw 23.1%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -24.9%

Away 34.8%

Odds: 2.88 EV: +0.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.3% Odds: 1.67 +5.7%

Over 3.5 41.2% Odds: 2.60 +7.1%

BTTS 64.6% Odds: 1.50 -3.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Eastleigh

1.72

Tamworth

1.55

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.1% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.1%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away AVERAGE (1.05)