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GAIS vs Hammarby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 15 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

GAIS

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Hammarby

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-114.3%0-29.7%0-34.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.2%2-15.7%2-23.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 43.3% 47.6% 2.10 -9.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 29.9% 3.35 -21.6%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GAIS0.9

Hammarby1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GAIS · PPG 1.25

HAMMARBY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

GAIS (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Hammarby (A) 43.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

GAIS face Hammarby in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GAIS a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Hammarby 43%, so Hammarby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for GAIS and 1.4 for Hammarby (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GAIS are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Hammarby. This match finished 2-0.

GAIS vs Hammarby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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