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Brackley Town vs Aldershot Town Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Brackley Town

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aldershot Town

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.0%0-27.2%0-33.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.4%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -15.1%

Away win 44.7% 45.5% 2.20 -1.7%

Over 2.5 54.8% 59.9% 1.67 -8.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 37.0% 2.70 -12.3%

BTTS 57.6% 65.4% 1.53 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.6%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1✓ 7.4%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brackley Town1.3

Aldershot Town1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRACKLEY TOWN · PPG 1.14

ALDERSHOT TOWN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Brackley Town (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -15.1%

Aldershot Town (A) 44.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brackley Town face Aldershot Town in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brackley Town a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Aldershot Town 45%, so Aldershot Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brackley Town and 1.6 for Aldershot Town (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brackley Town are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Aldershot Town. This match finished 2-1.

Brackley Town vs Aldershot Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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