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Lillestrom vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 2 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Lillestrom

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kristiansund

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-14.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.5%1-18.4%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-15.8%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-14.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 71.4% 1.40 -10.0%

Draw 23.3% 19.6% 5.10 +11.3%

Away win 12.5% 16.7% 6.00 -15.0%

Over 2.5 49.4% 72.5% 1.38 -31.8%

Over 3.5 25.7% 51.3% 1.95 -29.9%

BTTS 48.6% 66.7% 1.50 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 3–0 10.6%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom2.0

Kristiansund0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 2.25

KRISTIANSUND · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.3%

Kristiansund (A) 12.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Kristiansund in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 64% chance, the draw 23% and Kristiansund 13%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lillestrom and 0.5 for Kristiansund (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.25 for Kristiansund. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Lillestrom vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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