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Start vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 16:00

Start

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 78% chance

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-18.5%0-210.6%0-38.7%0-4+9.8%1 1-03.1%1-17.6%1-29.4%1-37.8%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.4%2-13.4%2-24.2%2-33.5%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.2%3-31.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 9.1% 11.00 +31.1%

Draw 21.5% 15.2% 6.60 +25.1%

Away win 64.7% 83.3% 1.20 -22.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 76.9% 1.30 -18.6%

Over 3.5 43.6% 54.6% 1.83 -20.2%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–3 8.7%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start0.9

Bodo/Glimt2.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 1.00

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

78%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 13.8%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +31.1%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +25.1%

Bodo/Glimt (A) 64.7%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Bodo/Glimt in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Bodo/Glimt 65%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Start and 2.5 for Bodo/Glimt (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Bodo/Glimt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 1-4.

Start vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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