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Meshakhte vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 12:00

Meshakhte

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-121.1%0-213.4%0-35.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.7%1-111.1%1-27.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-02.3%2-12.9%2-21.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.4%3-10.5%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -12.9%

Draw 32.2% 28.6% 3.50 +12.7%

Away win 52.1% 63.7% 1.57 -18.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 10.8% 30.5% 3.28 -38.8%

BTTS 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob46.2%

A 52% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.1%

#2 0–0 16.6%

#3 0–2 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meshakhte0.5

Torpedo Kutaisi1.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.67

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Meshakhte (H) 15.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.9%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +12.7%

Torpedo Kutaisi (A) 52.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meshakhte face Torpedo Kutaisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meshakhte a 16% chance, the draw 32% and Torpedo Kutaisi 52%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Meshakhte and 1.3 for Torpedo Kutaisi (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meshakhte are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 1-4.

Meshakhte vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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