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Chongqing T. vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 12:00

Chongqing T.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.3%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.8%1-110.8%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.8%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 39.1% 2.56 +21.6%

Draw 26.0% 30.8% 3.25 -9.3%

Away win 26.5% 39.1% 2.56 -19.3%

Over 2.5 60.0% 52.6% 1.90 +14.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% 32.3% 3.10 +14.7%

BTTS 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing T.1.7

Yunnan Yukun1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING T. · PPG 2.00

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing T. (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +21.6%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.3%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing T. face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing T. a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Yunnan Yukun 27%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chongqing T. and 1.4 for Yunnan Yukun (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing T. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Chongqing T. vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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