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S. Shenhua vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 11:35

S. Shenhua

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.0%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.7%1-15.8%1-23.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-111.7%4+-27.2%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 66.2% 1.51 -9.8%

Draw 20.4% 23.3% 4.30 -7.4%

Away win 19.9% 19.2% 5.20 +2.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 58.8% 47.6% 2.10 +23.5%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–1 5.8%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua2.9

Wuhan Three T.1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.8%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 2.17

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=59.7%

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -9.8%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -7.4%

Wuhan Three T. (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Wuhan Three T. in China - Super League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Wuhan Three T. 20%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for S. Shenhua and 1.2 for Wuhan Three T. (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Wuhan Three T.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-2.

S. Shenhua vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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