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Helsingborg vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 8 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 17:00

Helsingborg

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varberg BoIS

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+23.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.2%0-23.5%0-32.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-02.9%1-16.4%1-27.1%1-35.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-16.5%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.0%3 3-02.0%3-14.4%3-24.9%3-33.6%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.6%4+-24.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 37.0% 2.70 -3.1%

Draw 22.5% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Away win 41.5% 40.8% 2.45 +1.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 54.6% 1.83 +23.0%

Over 3.5 61.3% 32.3% 3.10 +90.0%

BTTS 66.7% 61.7% 1.62 +8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 2.0-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.4%

#2 2–2 7.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helsingborg2.0

Varberg BoIS2.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HELSINGBORG · PPG 2.50

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=35.9%

Win probability 1X2

Helsingborg (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

Varberg BoIS (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helsingborg face Varberg BoIS in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helsingborg a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Varberg BoIS 42%, so Varberg BoIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Helsingborg and 2.2 for Varberg BoIS (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helsingborg are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Varberg BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +90.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Helsingborg vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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