Today / China - Super League / Qingdao West C. vs Beijing Guoan

Qingdao West C. vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 12:00

Qingdao West C.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.3%0-28.3%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-16.7%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 27.8% 3.60 +9.4%

Draw 27.4% 28.2% 3.55 -1.6%

Away win 42.2% 52.9% 1.89 -20.2%

Over 2.5 47.5% 57.1% 1.75 -16.9%

Over 3.5 22.0% 34.5% 2.90 -21.7%

BTTS 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao West C.1.0

Beijing Guoan1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 1.40

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao West C. (H) 30.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +9.4%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.6%

Beijing Guoan (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao West C. face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao West C. a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Beijing Guoan 42%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Qingdao West C. and 1.3 for Beijing Guoan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao West C. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Qingdao West C. vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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