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Chengdu vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 12:00

Chengdu

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Shanghai Port

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.3%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-16.4%1-22.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.1%4+-110.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 69.4% 1.44 -5.0%

Draw 22.0% 22.5% 4.45 -1.3%

Away win 12.0% 16.9% 5.90 -17.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

BTTS 52.5% 65.4% 1.53 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.5%

H 66% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu2.7

Shanghai Port0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU · PPG 3.00

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -5.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -1.3%

Shanghai Port (A) 12.0%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu face Shanghai Port in China - Super League on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Shanghai Port 12%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Chengdu and 0.8 for Shanghai Port (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Shanghai Port. This match finished 0-1.

Chengdu vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions