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Union Espanola vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 23:00

Union Espanola

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Iquique

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.0%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.5%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 48.8% 2.05 +7.4%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -8.9%

Away win 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Over 3.5 23.8% 29.0% 3.45 -10.7%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1✓ 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Espanola1.6

D. Iquique0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 2.17

D. IQUIQUE · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Union Espanola (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.9%

D. Iquique (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Espanola face D. Iquique in Chile - Primera B on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Espanola a 52% chance, the draw 26% and D. Iquique 22%, so Union Espanola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Union Espanola and 0.8 for D. Iquique (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Espanola are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.40 for D. Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Union Espanola vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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