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Ponte Preta vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 22:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Londrina

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.8%0-26.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.9%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-17.5%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 45.5% 2.20 -21.2%

Draw 28.6% 32.8% 3.05 -7.7%

Away win 35.6% 29.0% 3.45 +22.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 41.7% 2.40 +10.9%

Over 3.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

BTTS 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta1.1

Londrina1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 1.00

LONDRINA · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.7%

Londrina (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Londrina 36%, so Ponte Preta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ponte Preta and 1.1 for Londrina (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Ponte Preta vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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