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Waterford vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 11 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 18:45

Waterford

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.8%0-26.9%0-34.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-05.9%1-110.5%1-29.3%1-35.5%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.1%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.8%3-13.2%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 36.8% 2.72 -12.4%

Draw 25.1% 29.0% 3.45 -8.0%

Away win 42.7% 41.0% 2.44 +4.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 54.6% 1.83 +12.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% 32.3% 3.10 +18.4%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1✓ 7.1%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.4

Drogheda Utd1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 0.75

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -12.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.0%

Drogheda Utd (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Drogheda Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Drogheda Utd 43%, so Drogheda Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Waterford and 1.8 for Drogheda Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Waterford vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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