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D. de Belgrano vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 18:30

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Chaco For Ever

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-110.9%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.7%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-16.3%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-12.2%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 54.6% 1.83 -14.5%

Draw 32.4% 34.5% 2.90 -6.0%

Away win 20.9% 20.8% 4.80 +0.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 35.1% 2.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 8.2% 16.7% 6.00 -30.5%

BTTS 46.2% 42.0% 2.38 +10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 19.7%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. de Belgrano1.1

Chaco For Ever0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.00

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

D. de Belgrano (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.0%

Chaco For Ever (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. de Belgrano face Chaco For Ever in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. de Belgrano a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Chaco For Ever 21%, so D. de Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for D. de Belgrano and 0.6 for Chaco For Ever (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. de Belgrano are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Chaco For Ever. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-0.

D. de Belgrano vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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