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Leganes vs Huesca Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 40 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 18:30

Leganes

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Huesca

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.7%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.6%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 52.6% 1.90 -8.2%

Draw 27.2% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

Away win 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -1.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Over 3.5 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0✓ 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leganes1.4

Huesca1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGANES · PPG 1.21

HUESCA · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

Leganes (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -8.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.7%

Huesca (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leganes face Huesca in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leganes a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Huesca 25%, so Leganes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leganes and 1.0 for Huesca (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leganes are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.42 for Huesca. This match finished 0-0.

Leganes vs Huesca Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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