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Orgryte vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Monday, May 18, 2026, 17:00

Orgryte

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.6%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 27.0% 3.70 +81.3%

Draw 26.1% 27.0% 3.70 -2.1%

Away win 24.9% 52.6% 1.90 -31.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orgryte1.6

IFK Goteborg1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORGRYTE · PPG 0.67

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Orgryte (H) 49.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +81.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.1%

IFK Goteborg (A) 24.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orgryte face IFK Goteborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orgryte a 49% chance, the draw 26% and IFK Goteborg 25%, so Orgryte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Orgryte and 1.1 for IFK Goteborg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orgryte are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.50 for IFK Goteborg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +81.3%.

Orgryte vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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