Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Djurgarden vs Sirius

Djurgarden vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 8 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 17:00

Djurgarden

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sirius

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.1%0-24.3%0-33.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-03.5%1-17.5%1-27.9%1-35.6%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.2%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-02.0%3-14.2%3-24.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.9%4+-23.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 41.3% 34.5% 2.90 +19.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Over 3.5 55.7% 37.0% 2.70 +50.4%

BTTS 63.0% 64.5% 1.55 -2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 41% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgarden1.8

Sirius2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDEN · PPG 1.75

SIRIUS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Djurgarden (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -22.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Sirius (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgarden face Sirius in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgarden a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Sirius 41%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Djurgarden and 2.1 for Sirius (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgarden are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.33 for Sirius. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Djurgarden vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions