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Sport Recife vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 23:30

Sport Recife

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

CRB

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.0%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.4%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 50.8% 1.97 +3.2%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -8.9%

Away win 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife1.6

CRB0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 2.00

CRB · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +3.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.9%

CRB (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 52% chance, the draw 26% and CRB 22%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sport Recife and 0.8 for CRB (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Sport Recife vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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