Today / Brazil - Serie A / Athletico PR vs Flamengo

Athletico PR vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 22:30

Athletico PR

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Flamengo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.8%0-27.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.5%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 31.3% 3.20 +14.6%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Away win 36.7% 45.9% 2.18 -20.0%

Over 2.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Over 3.5 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletico PR1.1

Flamengo1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 2.38

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.38) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Athletico PR (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +14.6%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

Flamengo (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletico PR face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletico PR a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Flamengo 37%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Athletico PR and 1.2 for Flamengo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletico PR are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Athletico PR vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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