Athletico PR vs Flamengo Prediction & Tips

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Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 16 Arena da Baixada· Curitiba Sunday, May 17, 2026 22:30

Athletico PR PPG 2.38

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Flamengo PPG 2.00

Home· +14.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.8%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +14.6%

Draw 27.5%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -5.5%

Away 36.7%

Odds: 2.18 EV: -20.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.9% Odds: 2.10 -1.5%

Over 3.5 21.2% Odds: 3.90 -10.4%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.85 -4.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Athletico PR

1.11

Flamengo

1.24

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.38) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)