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Portland T. W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 22:00

Portland T. W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Angel City W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.4%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.2%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 56.5% 1.77 -9.7%

Draw 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -8.3%

Away win 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Over 3.5 29.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.7%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland T. W1.7

Angel City W1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND T. W · PPG 3.00

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Portland T. W (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -9.7%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.3%

Angel City W (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland T. W face Angel City W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland T. W a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Angel City W 24%, so Portland T. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Portland T. W and 1.0 for Angel City W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland T. W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Angel City W. This match finished 0-0.

Portland T. W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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