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San Marcos vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

San Marcos

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Antofagasta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.3%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.7%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-18.7%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-14.0%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 44.4% 2.25 +8.5%

Draw 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Away win 24.5% 34.7% 2.88 -17.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 19.2% 29.0% 3.45 -20.3%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos1.4

Antofagasta0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS · PPG 2.20

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=48.2%

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos (H) 48.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Antofagasta (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos face Antofagasta in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Antofagasta 25%, so San Marcos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Marcos and 0.9 for Antofagasta (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-1.

San Marcos vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera B Predictions