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Criciuma vs Atletico GO Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

Criciuma

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Atletico GO

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-111.4%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.1%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 50.3% 1.99 -10.7%

Draw 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

Away win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 37.0% 2.70 -5.5%

Over 3.5 10.0% 18.2% 5.50 -27.0%

BTTS 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 1–1✓ 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma1.1

Atletico GO0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.33

ATLETICO GO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=44.9%

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -10.7%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.6%

Atletico GO (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Atletico GO in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Atletico GO 23%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Criciuma and 0.7 for Atletico GO (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Atletico GO. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Criciuma vs Atletico GO Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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