Today / Brazil - Serie B / Ceara vs Fortaleza

Ceara vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

Ceara

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Fortaleza

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-114.2%0-25.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.0%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-16.2%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.3%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 35.2% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 10.3% — — —

BTTS 46.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.6%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 16.0%

#4 0–1 14.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara0.9

Fortaleza0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.25

FORTALEZA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Fortaleza in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Fortaleza 27%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ceara and 0.8 for Fortaleza (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Fortaleza. This match finished 2-1.

Ceara vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions