Today / Brazil - Serie A / Chapecoense vs Remo

Chapecoense vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

Chapecoense

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Remo

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.0%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-111.8%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 42.0% 2.38 -6.0%

Draw 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

Away win 34.8% 34.5% 2.90 +0.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

BTTS 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense1.5

Remo1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 0.88

REMO · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.9%

Remo (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense face Remo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Remo 35%, so Chapecoense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chapecoense and 1.4 for Remo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.63 for Remo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Chapecoense vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions