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Bragantino vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

Bragantino

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vitoria

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Draw 25.1% 27.4% 3.65 -5.0%

Away win 24.0% 18.9% 5.30 +16.3%

Over 2.5 51.3% 50.0% 2.00 +2.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

BTTS 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0✓ 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bragantino1.6

Vitoria1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.43

VITORIA · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Bragantino (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -16.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.0%

Vitoria (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bragantino face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bragantino a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Vitoria 24%, so Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bragantino and 1.0 for Vitoria (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bragantino are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.43 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Bragantino vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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