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Vila Nova vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:00

Vila Nova

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Avai

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.8%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.5%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 50.8% 1.97 -9.8%

Draw 27.9% 29.9% 3.35 -3.9%

Away win 26.3% 26.0% 3.85 +0.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.4

Avai1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.00

AVAI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -9.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.9%

Avai (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Avai 26%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vila Nova and 1.1 for Avai (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Vila Nova vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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