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Los Chankas vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 15 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 20:30

Los Chankas

PPG 2.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

UCV Moquegua

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.2%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-110.1%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.4%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-14.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 71.4% 1.40 -25.5%

Draw 24.7% 22.7% 4.40 +5.2%

Away win 22.1% 12.9% 7.75 +42.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 30.3% 36.4% 2.75 -16.7%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0✓ 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Chankas1.9

UCV Moquegua0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS CHANKAS · PPG 2.57

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Los Chankas (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -25.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.2%

UCV Moquegua (A) 22.1%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +42.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Chankas face UCV Moquegua in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Chankas a 53% chance, the draw 25% and UCV Moquegua 22%, so Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Los Chankas and 0.8 for UCV Moquegua (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Chankas are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.57 for UCV Moquegua. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Los Chankas vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions