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Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 20:00

Quilmes

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.6%0-116.2%0-25.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.0%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.8%2-14.1%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.6%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 45.5% 2.20 -23.2%

Draw 40.8% 37.7% 2.65 +8.1%

Away win 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Over 3.5 4.6% 15.4% 6.50 -42.1%

BTTS 41.8% 43.5% 2.30 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.6%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 0–1✓ 16.2%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes0.7

Tristan Suarez0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 1.80

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 40.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +8.1%

Tristan Suarez (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Tristan Suarez 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Quilmes and 0.6 for Tristan Suarez (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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