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Gimnasia y Tiro vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 20:00

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-117.8%0-29.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.6%1-112.9%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.6%2-14.7%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 35.1% 2.85 -12.1%

Draw 34.1% 38.5% 2.60 -11.3%

Away win 37.9% 36.4% 2.75 +4.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Over 3.5 10.0% 14.3% 7.00 -18.0%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 0–1 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0✓ 12.6%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia y Tiro0.7

SM Tucuman1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.29

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.29) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia y Tiro (H) 28.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.1%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -11.3%

SM Tucuman (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia y Tiro face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia y Tiro a 28% chance, the draw 34% and SM Tucuman 38%, so SM Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gimnasia y Tiro and 1.0 for SM Tucuman (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia y Tiro are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.60 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia y Tiro vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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