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Deportivo Maipu vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 20:00

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-113.5%0-25.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.9%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.9%2-16.6%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 52.6% 1.90 -27.8%

Draw 35.1% 33.3% 3.00 +5.3%

Away win 26.9% 23.1% 4.33 +9.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 3.5 11.3% 20.0% 5.00 -26.1%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 15.9%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.0

Nueva Chicago0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 1.80

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -27.8%

Draw 35.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.3%

Nueva Chicago (A) 26.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Nueva Chicago in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Nueva Chicago 27%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.8 for Nueva Chicago (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.67 for Nueva Chicago. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Maipu vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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