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Midland vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:30

Midland

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Agropecuario

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-110.3%0-23.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Draw 31.3% 35.1% 2.85 -10.8%

Away win 20.7% 25.3% 3.95 -10.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 40.0% 2.50 -12.5%

Over 3.5 10.6% 20.0% 5.00 -28.2%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0✓ 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.2

Agropecuario0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 1.83

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.0%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.8%

Agropecuario (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Agropecuario 21%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Midland and 0.6 for Agropecuario (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Agropecuario. This match finished 2-0.

Midland vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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