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Real Zaragoza vs Sporting Gijon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 40 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:15

Real Zaragoza

PPG 0.95 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting Gijon

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-113.0%0-27.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.8%2-16.8%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 56.8% 1.76 -39.5%

Draw 28.9% 28.2% 3.55 +1.6%

Away win 36.7% 22.2% 4.50 +65.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 18.2% 32.3% 3.10 -26.2%

BTTS 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Zaragoza1.0

Sporting Gijon1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 0.95

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.95), Away POOR (0.84)

Win probability 1X2

Real Zaragoza (H) 34.4%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -39.5%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.6%

Sporting Gijon (A) 36.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +65.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Zaragoza face Sporting Gijon in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Zaragoza a 34% chance, the draw 29% and Sporting Gijon 37%, so Sporting Gijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Zaragoza and 1.2 for Sporting Gijon (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Zaragoza are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 0.84 for Sporting Gijon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +65.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Real Zaragoza vs Sporting Gijon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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