Today / Chile - Primera B / San Luis vs Puerto Montt

San Luis vs Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

San Luis

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Puerto Montt

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.6%0-27.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.6%1-112.7%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-17.7%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Draw 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 24.8% 25.3% 3.95 -1.2%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luis1.2

Puerto Montt1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIS · PPG 2.20

PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=35.9%

Win probability 1X2

San Luis (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Puerto Montt (A) 36.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luis face Puerto Montt in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luis a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Puerto Montt 37%, so Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Luis and 1.3 for Puerto Montt (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luis are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Puerto Montt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 4-1.

San Luis vs Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera B Predictions