Today / Brazil - Serie B / Athletic Club vs Juventude

Athletic Club vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Juventude

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.3%0-116.5%0-24.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-111.2%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.5%2-13.8%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.5%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 38.8% 2.58 -9.7%

Draw 41.0% 33.6% 2.98 +22.2%

Away win 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 3.5 3.9% 18.2% 5.50 -47.1%

BTTS 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.3%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 0–1 16.5%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club0.7

Juventude0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.25

JUVENTUDE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -9.7%

Draw 41.0%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +22.2%

Juventude (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Juventude in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Juventude 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Athletic Club and 0.6 for Juventude (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Juventude. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Athletic Club vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions