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Botafogo vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Botafogo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Corinthians

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 48% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.4%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.8%1-112.3%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 43.5% 2.30 +6.0%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 45.5% 2.20 +15.7%

Over 3.5 26.5% 23.8% 4.20 +6.8%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo1.5

Corinthians1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.33

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Corinthians (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Corinthians 27%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Botafogo and 1.1 for Corinthians (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Botafogo vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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