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Bahia vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Bahia

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gremio

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.2%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.6%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.7%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 58.5% 1.71 -16.4%

Draw 26.9% 27.0% 3.70 -0.3%

Away win 24.2% 21.5% 4.65 +7.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 18.3% 31.3% 3.20 -24.9%

BTTS 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia1.4

Gremio0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.29

GREMIO · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -16.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.3%

Gremio (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Gremio 24%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bahia and 0.8 for Gremio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.38 for Gremio. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Bahia vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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