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Patronato vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Patronato

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Chacarita J.

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.2%0-116.1%0-25.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-111.9%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-14.4%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.7%3-11.1%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

Draw 40.7% 36.4% 2.75 +11.9%

Away win 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Over 2.5 25.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.4%

Over 3.5 5.1% 18.2% 5.50 -43.2%

BTTS 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.2%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 2–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.7

Chacarita J.0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.40

CHACARITA J. · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=34.7%

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.9%

Draw 40.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +11.9%

Chacarita J. (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Chacarita J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Chacarita J. 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Patronato and 0.6 for Chacarita J. (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Chacarita J.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Patronato vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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